Companhia Paranaense de Energia - COPEL (ELP)

Company

ELP 1-year chart ELP 1-year chart

"Copel is the largest company in Paraná; it has 3.38 million consumers, covering virtually 100% of homes in urban areas and 90%, in rural areas. Connected consumers include 2.6 million homes, 58,000 industries, 281,000 commercial establishments and 331,000 rural properties. Copel makes an average of 70,000 new connections every year." (company website)

ELP 6-month chart
ELP 6-month chart

Buy

Copel maintained a solid uptrend from late January through mid-July, when it pulled back and then corrected sharply in August.

Earnings were released yesterday after the bell, reporting a profit of R$1.31 (Brazilian real) per share (.81 US). (I confess some unease about the results, since the press release announcing the results is 25 pages long(!) and follows a very different structure than US company releases — a definite case of "too much information.")

Because of the sharp correction, the chart doesn't look all that good.

  • Price momentum (PPO) — fallen sharply for past month
  • Relative strength (RSI) — below neutral, but rising
  • Trend (ADX) — below the threshold but strengthening, and selling pressure (-DI) is way above buying pressure (+DI)
  • Volume — not much change

Based on technical analysis, MarketEdge calls ELP a "long" with "strongly deteriorating conditions," but notes that the stock is "oversold."

Sell

gain Bottom line
-2%

After updating my strategy over the weekend, I realized I had made a bad mistake by going long with ELP; if anything, I should have sold short. Accordingly, I bailed out this morning before any more damage could be done.

In a show of confidence (bravado?) I turned around and sold a lot short.