TIBCO Software (TIBX)

Company

"TIBCO Software Inc. is a leading business integration and process management software company that enables real-time business. Real-time business is about giving organizations the ability to sense and respond to changes and opportunities as they arise. TIBCO has delivered the value of real-time business, what TIBCO calls The Power of Now®, to over 2,500 customers around the world and in a wide variety of industries." (company website)

Buy

21-Sep-06. TIBCO has been moving up strongly since breaking above the $8 level. Yesterday it stretched the upper Bollinger band with three times normal volume.

Price momentum (PPO) — accelerating
Trend (ADX) — strong and strengthening
Money flow (CMF) — strong flow of money into the stock
Relative strength (RSI) — strong
Volume — higher than normal volumes on push above $8

Sell

Bottom line
2%

31-Oct-06. I decided to sell TIBX today when it made a new high (by 2¢) and then began to fall relentlessly. It has been almost three months since TIBX touched back to the 50-day moving average, and I suspect that is coming soon: volumes are light; momentum (PPO) is falling; trend (ADX) is weakening; money is still flowing in but less briskly; and relative strength (RSI) is so-so. Especially bothersome is the Stochastic RSI which is making a series of lower peaks, returning to oversold for the third time in two weeks. I just have a feeling TIBX will be "on sale" soon.