Intevac (IVAC)

Company

"Intevac operates two businesses: Equipment and Imaging. Intevac's Equipment business is the world’s leading supplier of sputtering equipment used to manufacture thin-film disks for use in computer hard disk drives. Intevac's Imaging business is a provider of leading edge extreme low light imaging sensor cameras and systems." (company website)

Buy

14-Apr-05. What was I thinking?!?! Twenty-four hours later, buying IVAC doesn't look very smart. Price momentum (PPO) is falling steeply. Buying pressure (+DI) is declining and selling pressure (-DI) is picking up. Relative strength (RSI) is falling. And, IVAC is oversold (StochRSI).

On the other hand, IVAC has been in a clear, sustained uptrend since September 2004 (see sidebar). The 50- and 200-day moving averages are both rising steadily. IVAC took a nice bounce with decent volume off the 20-day moving average on Tuesday. And, at the time I placed the order, IVAC was up for the day.

As I write this, the market is in the third consecutive day of steep declines. Part of me says, Admit it was a stupid choice and sell. Another part of me says, Haste makes waste. Which part do I listen to?

Sell

28-Apr-05. I was played. I think IVAC is a good example of a trap I'm falling into, namely: A stock makes a new high, pulls back, then has a good day. I start to think the pullback is over and buy in, only to see the stock move lower.

For a few days it looked like IVAC would not be a disaster; it got briefly back up over my purchase price after five days of jumps up. Unfortunately, for the last three days the price has collapsed again. It is now back below the 50-day moving average and the trend continues to weaken.

Ouch! Ouch! Ouch!