Alamosa

APCS

Company. Alamosa "is the largest PCS affiliate of Sprint based on number of subscribers. Alamosa has the exclusive right to provide digital wireless mobile communications network services under the Sprint brand name throughout its designated territory located in Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Arizona, Colorado, Utah, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Missouri, Washington, Oregon, Arkansas, Kansas, Illinois and California." (company website)

APCS stock chart

Buy. Alamosa turned up in my screen for bullish breakouts with big volume. Unfortunately I'm a bit late to the party — two weeks ago was a much better time to buy, but I'm looking for a period of consolidation followed by continued movement upward. APCS bottomed in early 2003 and has been rising steadily ever since (see sidebar) with a succession of higher earnings reports.

Let the second guessing begin. Immediately after the trade executed I began to convince myself this was a bad idea. The stock is up too much. The company is carrying a lot of debt. It's time to pull back toward the averages. They are dependent on the fortunes of Sprint (FON recent 52-week high). Et cetera, et cetera.

Essentially I'm making a bet on the historical pattern, both for the year and for presidential cycles. (see sidebar)

profit Bottom line
+7.7%

Sell. I decided to sell today when APCS opened lower and continued to fall for the third straight day. It has just reached another new high ($11.45) so a pullback is natural. However, I don't want to take the chance that it might pull back and just keep going down. This is defensive profit-taking, pure and simple.

APCS 1-year chart
APCS 1-year chart
yearly stock cycle
Yearly stock market cycle. (Click to enlarge.) Historically the market rises during the last two months of the year. For more historical patterns, see Dogs of the Dow.

Presidential stock market cycle. (Click to enlarge.) Election year usually sees stock prices rise but get all wobbly during the beginning of an administration.