Hellenic Telecommunications (OTE)

Company. Hellenic Telecommunications (OTE) is "the Greek full-service telecommunications provider" (press release), with operations in places like Albania, Romania, and elsewhere. I will refer you to the company website for further information, but it's all Greek to me.

Buy. OTE had been climbing steadily since early July. MarketEdge (a technical analysis service that comes free with my brokerage account) characterized the chart as having a "strong upward" trend.

At the time I bought, the Chaikin oscillator had risen over the zero threshhold. The directional movement indicator (ADX) was still strong; the +DI line was safely above the -DI line. There had been a small dip, but the price seemed to be on its way back up. It seemed like a good idea.

Indeed, OTE stock price did get up to $6.50 again. When it fell again, but not quite as far, I surmised that a symmetrical triangle was in the making. I held.

On August 26, a cross with long tails formed as the stock opened and closed at the same price, but ranged much higher and lower at various times during the session. This is supposed to indicate "investor uncertainty." I was gratified when the following day, August 27, the stock opened higher and just kept on going, a quite bullish sign.

Sell. On the morning of August 28, just as I was preparing to leave home for the Labor Day weekend, the OTE earnings report hit the wires:

• Quarterly revenues up 16.5%
• Group EBITDA margin at 39.2%, up from 37.1% in Q2 '02
• Free cash flow generation EUR76.4 million in the second quarter
• Net income up 7%

All of this sounded good, but as we all know, the devil is in the details: "In the quarter, OTE's domestic fixed-line operations faced heightened competition - notably from larger, better-funded players - as well as intense scrutiny from the regulator. In this environment, OTE managed to contain the erosion of its market share..."

Inasmuch as there was no immediate reaction in the stock price, I put in a sell order for just a couple of cents above the highest buy offer and below the lowest sell offer. And then I got in the car for a 500 mile drive. When I checked at the end of the day, some damage had been done, but not catastrophic, and my order was still open. I left it.

On Friday, OTE opened lower, but seemed to stabilize around $6.00. I was only down 35¢ a share. I sat tight.

On Tuesday (the market was closed Monday for Labor Day) the price plunged while I was driving from Twain Harte to San Jose.

Today, Wednesday, the stock opened still lower. I bailed. Sometimes you make money. Sometimes you don't.